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Makrofokus

Three persons on a terrace in the city.

Här hittar du våra senaste temaanalyser av aktuella ämnen och händelser som påverkar svensk och internationell ekonomi. 

Analyser

US Election 2020: Bidenomics gives short run growth boost

Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)

Restaurangbranschen: Återhämtningen som kom av sig

Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)

US Election 2020: Prepare for a change in the White House

Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)

Frågor och svar inför amerikanska presidentvalet 2020

8 oktober 2020: Läs frågor och svar här (pdf)

Nordic Macro Monthly - Booming house prices 

• The Nordic economies are recovering but the spread of the virus remains a big unknown
• Special theme: the Nordic housing market – Prices at new record highs
• We foresee continued house price increases but at a slower pace

1 oktober 2020: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
 

Rapport- Handels utsikter

29 september 2020: Sammanfattning: Bättre- men inte bra (pdf)

Trump, Biden and climate policy

24 september 2020: A key election for the planet (pdf)
 

Ännu ingen grön återhämtning

Gröna investeringar utgör hittills en marginell del av de globala stimulanserna. Sverige har annonserat minst gröna stimulanser i Norden men mer förväntas komma.

26 augusti 2020: Ännu ingen grön återhämtning
 

Swedish Green Bond: Time for issuance

The Swedish government’s first green bond is an important political signal and will support spending towards Sweden’s environmental targets. Given the state’s increased borrowing needs, the timing of the green bond issuance is good.

24 augusti 2020: Swedish Green Bond: Time for issuance
 

Macro Focus - Swedbank’s Sustainability Indicators show more progress is needed

Will EU's recovery fund help in reaching targets?

25 juni 2020: Macro Focus - Swedbank’s Sustainability Indicators show more progress is needed (pdf)

Macro Focus: Real-time transaction data

Real-time data is an important input to timely economic forecasting, especially during a crisis. Swedbank Pay’s daily transaction data aligns well with the official consumption statistics. The latest data indicates a recovery in May and June, albeit from a low level.

24 juni 2020: Macro Focus: Real-time transaction data (pdf)

A greenish recovery

Political momentum and cheaper renewables support a greener crisis recovery in Europe. The Nordics are on the right track, but more is needed. 

22 juni 2020: A greenish recovery

Nordic-Baltic Business Report: Well prepared to take on the challenge

The Nordic and Baltic economies will be hard hit by the Covid-19-induced shock due to their small size and relative openness. However, the Nordics and Baltics are well prepared to take on the challenge.

26 maj 2020: Nordic-Baltic Business Report (pdf)

Nordic Macro Monthly: Small economies get even smaller.

Historical drops in GDP in the Nordics while unemployment surges. Private consumption takes a deep hit due to containment measures

29 April 2020: Nordic Macro Monthly (pdf)

Svensk bostadsmarknad; Coronaviruset leder till prisfall på bostäder

Priserna kommer att falla i spåren av Coronakrisen men efter krisen väntas bostadsmarknaden återhämta sig

7 april 2020: Svensk bostadsmarknad; Coronaviruset leder till prisfall på bostäder

Corona slår mot Norden och Baltikum

Begränsade effekter på tillväxt och arbetsmarknader i Norden och Baltikum hittills men vid ett sannolikt scenario blir följder stora på både tillväxt och arbetsmarknader.

5 mars 2020: Corona slår mot Norden och Baltikum

Nordic Macro Monthly: Strong domestic demand keeps Nordics afloat amid virus fears

Growth in Nordics between 1 and 2 % in 2020. Corona weighs on interest rates and Scandies. Special theme: Finland is getting too old.

26 februari 2020: Nordic Macro Monthly

Fed update: No big surprises

The federal funds rate was left unchanged, but a 5 bps increase of the IOER. We continue to expect federal funds to be unchanged although risks are leaning towards more easing.
30 januari 2019: Fed update: No big surprises

China: Coronavirus will have a negative, but limited, effect on the Chinese economy

27 januari 2019: China: Coronavirus will have a negative, but limited, effect on the Chinese economy

Fed preview: Continued on hold

Annual rotation of regional president not causing a shift in monetary policy. We do not expect any further rate cuts, but the downside risks dominate.
24 januari 2019: Fed preview: Continued on hold

ECB comment: Nothing new, but the review

No changes in monetary policy. Strategic revire launched as expected.
23 januari 2019: ECB comment: Nothing new, but the review

Grön protektionism - hot eller möjlighet

Inom EU bubblar en slags grön protektionism. Bland annat förespråkas koldioxidtullar, som skulle kunna bidra till att minska de globala utsläppen. För svensk del skulle tullarna innebära högre kostnader för hushåll och företag men även förstärkt konkurrenskraft för vissa företag.

21 januari 2020: Grön protektionism – hot eller möjlighet

ECB preview: ECB to launch its strategic review

No changes in monetary policy expected on Thursday. The big event is the launch of the strategic review of monetary policy.
21 januari 2019: ECB preview: ECB to launch its strategic review

China: Growth stabilizes as stimulus and trade deal lend support, but the long term slowdown drivers remain

17 januari 2019: China: Growth stabilizes as stimulus and trade deal lend support, but the long term slowdown drivers remain

 

 

Consumer Spending Observer

Consumer Spending Observer: Swedish consumption remains stable

Consumer spending steady, just below last year’s level. The near-term development remains fragile and depends on the corona evolution.

7 Oktober 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Nothing new to report

Consumer spending stable at a few percent below last year’s level. Corona continues to boost spending on groceries, home electronics, and home furnishing.

23 september 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: A new normal?

Continued stable spending during last week at about 2% below last year’s level, and the growth rate in total spending seems to have reached a new, but temporary, normal.

16 september 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending is almost back in town

After a fairly stable summer, September has started off on a stronger footing. Spending patterns are starting to look more and more like 2019 for several sectors, albeit on a lower level.

9 september 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Growth is picking up

Payday bounceback and almost all sectors improved in level terms. The overall trend in spending is stable at around 4% lower compared to last year.

2 september 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Temporary decline, stable trend

Card transaction turnover improved during last week in level terms, but fell in annual terms due to a pay day effect. The overall trend in spending is stable at around 4% lower compared to last year.

26 augusti 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending slowly climbs up

Swedish card transaction data indicates that spending is still on track of approaching last year’s level. Growth is driven by groceries spending and offset mainly by a decline in recreation & culture and airlines & travel agencies.

19 augusti 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending is improving in the first week of August, while the trend remains stable

Swedish card transaction data indicates that spending is approaching last year’s level. Restaurants & hotels continue to improve, while spending on groceries is much higher compared to last year.

12 augusti 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending during the last week, July, and the summer: all stable at about 5% below last year’s level

Some sectors are closing up the gap to 2019 spending. Travel related spending persists at extremely low levels, while spending on restaurants & hotels is approaching normal levels

5 augusti 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending is somewhat below last year’s level, but the differences across sectors decrease

Swedish card transaction data up until 25th of July shows spending at about 5% below last year’s level. Restaurants & hotels show a significant improvement, while spending on groceries is less elevated compared to a month ago.

29 juli 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending is back to last year’s level

Swedish card transaction data up until 20th of June shows that spending recovered further, and total turnover is now back to last year’s level, with a different composition, however. Total spending excluding grocery stores is also improving and is now down by 8% compared to a year ago.

24 juni 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Swedish card transaction spending below normal levels, but improvement underway

Swedish card transaction data up until 13th of June continues to show lower spending compared to a year ago. Underlying trend in spending seems to be picking up slightly.

17 juni 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)